Equities: us tech, eu banks, em growth

Equity markets should remain supported by steady growth and easy financing conditions, but gains will rely more on company profits than on rising valuations. While recent years have been marked by high concentration within indices, active management could benefit from a return to dispersion in the markets.

The United States remains a protagonist across equity markets, thanks to strong margins, productivity gains from artificial intelligence (AI) and steady investor demand. We specifically favour a mix of large tech names and smaller companies.

In Europe, the banking sector is a clear front runner. Their stronger balance sheets and limited expected credit losses should put them in a stronger position for 2026. European small and mid-caps could also benefit from continued investments in defence and infrastructure, easier financing and renewed mergers and acquisitions (M&A) interest.

Emerging market (EM) equities also look attractive, supported by a weaker dollar, stronger growth than developed markets and low inflation. Policy support, household savings that can be reinvested in the economy and ongoing innovation in its technology sector all translate to promising signs of a potential recovery for China.
 

Fixed income: short govies, eu credit, em local debt

On the fixed-income side, we keep a moderate exposure to government bonds, with a focus on short maturities that are less exposed to fiscal risks. By contrast, European corporate bonds benefit from supportive financial conditions and demand for higher yields. Emerging market local currency debt is also appealing thanks to falling inflation, high real yields and a softer dollar, making it a valuable source of diversification.

Currencies: soft dollar, gold strength, defensive forex

The US dollar is expected to stay under pressure because of upcoming rate cuts and concerns about US fiscal management. Partial currency hedging remains in place.

Thanks to central bank buying and growing interest from retail and institutional investors, gold shines bright as a key portfolio diversifier. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen may also offer protection during periods of volatility.

Read the Global Outlook